THE STATUS QUO AND ITS DISCONTENT

By Korede Adeshina

“Suffering and Smiling” that’s a refrain from one of Fela Kuti’s songs.That phrase truly characterizes the mental conditioning of the average Nigerian in acquiescing to the material condition in which he finds himself. Fela was legendary in his music but more so in the fierceness of his criticism of the ills that prevailed in his day. Fela wasn’t a lone voice in the wilderness calling the nation to repentance,the likes of Gani Fawehinmi, Ken Saro-Wiwa and the ogoni nine, Beko Ransome-Kuti were his contemporaries and comrades-in-struggle. They are all late now. It appears they all lived in age not too distant and the evils they railed against are still with us today.

One may ask, what is wrong with the status quo? And another may ask, why is there a general discontent with the status quo? Then I will ask, why are we content with our discontentment? Sounds paradoxical right? But that is the case with us, Nigerians.

The socio-economic and political status quo in Nigeria today would be totally unacceptable in civilized climes and most Nigerians resent it too but they are reluctant to do anything about it. We had rather fix the blame and keep the problem or merely wish it away, hence our complacency reinforces the status quo that we loathe so much. While the vital few who benefits from the status quo perpetuates their self-interest and avarice, the trivial many, driven by sentiments and irrationality, defer their discontentment to that utopian day of reckoning. It is in such fashion that the status quo and its discontents become a self-reinforcing mechanism. Henry ford’s saying that “thinking is the hardest work there is” perhaps explain why the trivial many Nigerians act like a tribe of lemmings depending on their ethno-religious leanings.

But every-once-so-often Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle appears on the political arena as if to prove the veracity of the random walk theory in the socio-political sphere. For example, a member of the vital few prevaricates from class interest to obliterate the status quo and establishes a new political order that address the discontents of the trivial many, like George Washington, like Muhammadu Buhari; or an incident trigger an event of cataclysmic proportions that upends the status quo and establishes a new order like the arab spring. It is wishful thinking to hope for the later considering how polarized the Nigerian society is across ethnic and religious fault lines but the former we have in our hands at this time, in this election.

This is not to call to arms but a call to change in thinking; that we, the trivial many, are the master of the fate of this nation and the prevailing status quo is not sacrosanct by divine ordinance but can be upended by our collective resolve.

Korede Adeshina is the CEO of ubiQuity Company

CHARLIE HEBDO: FREE SPEECH AND ITS LIMITS

                                                 
                                                   

    

Je Suis Charlie. As far as I am libertarian in my thinking, we are all Charlie. The recent massacre of the French satirists could have happened to any liberty loving person, particularly bloggers. The heinous and barbaric acts of misguided uncivilized men as the Kourachi brothers and AmedyCoulibaly has once again brought to the fore the issue of Free speech and its limits.

In no way can we discount the fact that the evil these three terrorists wrought on the city of Paris terrorized a continent. It is reprehensible and disgusting and such actions has no place in the midst of civilized men. However, we can also rightly ask, is Charlie Hebdo’s free speech fundamentalism right?

“We are all Charlie” not because we agree with most of the distasteful publications of Charlie Hebdo but because of our fundamental belief that freedom of expression is an inalienable human right and not just western values and we are not about to give up that freedom anytime soon or ever will.

Nonetheless, we must recognize that freedom of speech also comes with the decency of respecting what is sacrilegious to others and the responsibility to be courteous in expressing our divergent opinions on the religion and cultures of others because either we accept it or not the identities of most people in the world today are defined by these two elements: religion and culture.

I am a free speech fundamentalist myself but I recognize its limits because I know that no idea, whether moral or political, is absolute. I would also add that no religion has monopoly over the truth and no idea is above scrutiny. In this age and time, religious dogmas cum moral ideas and its attendant world view cannot be enforced on people at the threat of terror. The world must not give in. Ideas that are worth it are won through the force of argument not through threat of slaughter. It is in this stead that we are all Charlie. But when free speech trumps the dignity and cultural cum religious identities of others then we must know that it has exceeded its limits and should be self-censored.  

THE TRAGEDY OF KREMLIN

It is obvious that Putin's adventure in Ukraine has become his greatest undoing since his sojurn in power. Now his annexation of cremea is fast precipitating his own downfall. How long will the Russians hold out for a failing economy? I suppose this should be THE topmost question on Putin's mind. Yet the West also is complicit in all of this but the consequence of this new cold war extends beyond the geographical sphere of the players. How do one separate all that's happening to Russia to the declining price of Oil? Its all intertwined. But as the elephants fight, let them remember that its the grass that suffers.

The Coming Challenge to US Economic Dominance

Late last month, leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the so-called BRICS – announced they were forming their own development bank to assist other emerging economies. The yet-to-be-named bank is expected to compete with the World Bank and the International Monetary fund, two institutions with power structures based firmly in the United States and Europe.
The announcement also serves as yet another sign that the world economy is quickly evolving to a place where United States global economic dominance is being challenged by regional interests.  Since the end of World War II, the United States was the driver of global monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve acted, the world listened and reacted.
Now, according to officials from the BRICS nations, emerging countries are trying to insulate themselves from the market shocks caused by the United States and Europe. They no longer trust the West to do the right thing. They’re forming their own “union” to create stability that the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Fed have been unable to provide.

“If there were shocks to the global financial market, with credit running short, we'd have credit from our biggest international partner[s], so there would be no interruption of trade," Brazilian economic minister Guido Mantega said.

The bank, which is planning to raise $50 billion in capital, is expected to open next year, according to Indian finance minister P. Chidambaram. Other alliances around the world are also forming, portending the end of Western economic dominance.  

To be clear, these alliances are not monetary unions. They don’t share a currency and therefore do not share fiscal policy.  Yet they do share the common belief that together, their developing economies can foster and sustain growth. These alliances do more than simply hedge against Western financial calamities. They encourage investors to keep money in the region instead of sending it to western markets and promote trade between member nations.
Even though many of these alliances lack real teeth, their formation is important symbolically. They give emerging economies a forum to show their strength, as well as send a clear signal that in the future, the United States is not the only game in town.
Rise of the BRICS It did not take long for the BRICS to become a major force on world markets. The leaders of these countries first met in 2006, but a formal alliance wasn’t made until 2009. South Africa joined the group in 2010.
These countries now represent more than 3 billion people. They have a combined gross domestic product of $14.8 trillion, and hold $4 billion in foreign reserves.
The U.S. economy is still the world’s largest, although experts agree that the Chinese economy will grow larger by 2016. And while BRICS’ economic growth has slowed in recent years, they weathered the global economic slowdown far better than the United States and Europe.
In fact, the new BRICS bank is likely the direct result of the Western response to the crisis. The Fed, the European Central Bank, the World Bank and the IMF all acted repeatedly to soften the blow of the crisis. Yet strong growth, both here and in Europe, remains elusive.
According to a paper by Ritwik Banerjee and Pankaj Vashisht, published at the height of the financial crisis, the ability of the BRICS to sustain growth while Western economies were contracting convinced the emerging nations that a rebalancing of global economic power was necessary.
“The erstwhile engine of global growth, the USA, was weakening and the new growth poles were emerging,” they wrote. BRICS were “one of [the] emerging growth poles that caught the imagination of the world.”
BRICS Not Alone In the wake of the global financial crisis, other countries are seeking alliances that will make them less reliant on the West. During the financial crisis, Japan, China and South Korea created a $120 billion emergency loan fund to shore up Asian nations’ finances. The Association of Southeast Asian nations, comprised of 10 countries from that part of the world, is also experiencing a period of robust growth.
New partnerships are also emerging closer to home. Álvaro Uribe, former president of Colombia, recently told The Fiscal Times that his country is considering entering into a formal economic alliance with Mexico, Peru and Chile, creating a bloc with a GDP of $2.2 trillion. These countries have already agreed to eliminate trade tariffs on 90 percent of the goods exchanged between them.
But the biggest challenge to U.S. dominance remains in Asia. The Pentagon is shifting its strategy to confront potential rivals in that part of the world. And U.S. companies are gaining ground in huge consumer markets in China, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Even the National Basketball Association recognizes that the key to future success is breaking the Asian market. It has spent $1.5 billion on a sports and entertainment complex outside of Beijing, and has sent Chinese-American star Jeremy Lin on a tour of the country.
"We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures," Christopher Kojm, National Intelligence Council chair wrote in a recent intelligence appraisal. "By 2030, Asia will be well on its way to returning to being the world's powerhouse, just as it was before 1500."

Read more at http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/04/23/The-Coming-Challenge-to-US-Economic-Dominance.aspx#v1pzUXubwlllhf7h.99

EUROPE TURNS LEFT

The anti-austerity argument in Europe has quickly achieved respectability. Letta is a social democrat, hailing from Italy’s left-of-center Democratic Party. Add his voice to that of French President François Hollande, who is a Socialist, and you find that the eurozone’s second– and third-largest economies are now led by leftists. That is a measure of how Europe’s debt and economic crises are changing its political complexion.
With Letta’s appointment—replacing the technocrat Mario Monti (Letta was not elected)—he and Hollande are the people to watch in Europe now.
It is in Italy and France that the battle over growth vs. austerity, stimulus vs. contraction, will be waged. Either growth and jobs increase and debt and deficits are reduced—or unemployment continues to rise as the debt soars. One way or the other, the post-austerity policies so many have urged for so long are set to get their reality test.

The worry is not the politics of the piece. If social democrats on the scene prove anything, it is that nothing will get done successfully if electorates are excluded. Even Michael Higgins, president of Ireland, which is touted as the success story by the austerians, has taken European leaders to task for mismanaging the European debt crisis. No, the worry is how post-austerity will be paid for.   

Letta is right about the murderous nature of austerity alone. Until now, Europe’s crisis has been a center-right affair. Neoliberal austerians have prevailed in Brussels as well as in most national capitals. And look. The EU teeters on the edge of double-dip recession; unemployment in the euro zone, it was just announced, has reached a record 12.1 percent; debt levels have not markedly improved.
In Italy, Letta takes command of an economy 7 percent smaller than it was in 2007, the year before the crisis. Industrial output is down 25 percent and disposable incomes by nearly 10 percent. Unemployment—Letta’s top priority, he says—is roughly the EU’s average; for those between the age of 15 and 24 it is 36.3 percent. One more stat: Public debt is “nearing 130 percent of gross domestic product,” the OECD reported over the weekend.
Given that things are not a great deal better in France—growth will be negative this year, Brussels forecast. Friday, and unemployment is at a record—Letta and Hollande find themselves in the same position. Both support Keynesian growth policies. But both are also committed to fiscal responsibility and EU debt and deficit targets. How is this going to work?
Hollande, who was elected a year ago, has since come across like alimp-wristed ditherer.This weekend he got hell from voters in the streets of Paris for cutting spending and compromising too readily with austerians: At 27 percent, his approval ratings are a record low for the French. At the same time, investors and businesses say France is a tax-happy place best to avoid.
Letta will face the same left-shoulder, right-shoulder pressures. His government is Italy’s first “grand coalition,” and it is a rainbow of political stripes, from his own Democrats (which have several factions) to former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s rightist People of Liberty. It is anyone’s guess at this early moment whether Letta, who is noted for his political skills, will keep this ship afloat.
What do social dems who have earned their stripes do in these situations? The answer is interesting because it suggests strongly that Europe’s five years of crisis has changed its political climate.  It has also changed past notions of what the social democratic left—which was born in Europe, after all—should look like and do.
Example: It is not an option in the Europe of 2013 for a left leaning politician and his or her government to jack up public expenditure and balloon the national debt and call it a response to recession. Exhibits “A” and “B” are the core strategies of both Letta and Hollande. They are complex mixes.
Both leaders intend to increase employment, bank lending, and consumption through yet-to-be specified policies. That is the growth side of the formula.
Both Hollande and Letta also say they will reduce public expenditures in the year to come, too. Both have announced tax cuts in the past week, and both are committed to the fiscal targets Brussels has in place (although Hollande has accepted an extension on France’s budget goal).
Look at the list. Two questions arise. First, is it possible to make all of the people happy all of the time? Second, where is the money going to come from?
No is the answer to the first, strictly on principle. Europe’s way forward is not yet defined, austerity or post-austerity or what have you, and this question is a reminder that sustainable growth within the EU structure is not a given outcome. It has to be achieved by shared effort and fairly shared sacrifice.
As to the second question, it is a matter of sequence—the order in which things are done. At the top of the list by a long way must be the post-austerity measures needed to get businesses investing, banks lending, people working and consuming, and (not least) tax revenues rising. After that come structural reforms and EU obligations.
Letta was interesting on this point last week. After his parliamentary debut in Rome, he got on a plane for his first state visit: It was to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “Our task is to continue with policies of fiscal consolidation,” he said—a direct contradiction of his stress in Rome the day before on jobs, growth, and aid to those of low income. As to where the dough was to come from, Letta appears to have stiffened at the thought. “The ways in which we will find the resources are up to us,” he said. “I don’t have to explain it to anyone.”
Maybe it was because this was an introductory meeting, but Merkel responded to all this with what sounds to me like unusual courtesy. “For us, budgetary consolidation and growth are not contradictory,” she said.
We are all going to see about that soon enough.

Lagos to Emerge 13th Largest Economy in Africa by 2014

The planned rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to raise Lagos State to Africa's 13th biggest economy by 2014, a report assessing the respective economies of the 36 states of the federation has shown.

In its latest report titled, “Nigeria Unveiled: Thirty Six Shades of Nigeria” Renaissance Capital (RenCap), an investment and financial advisory firm, also said that with a per capita income of approximately $4,000, which is more than double the national average of $1,700, the wealthiest people in Nigeria reside in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Abuja’s per capita income is equivalent to that of Tunisia and Ukraine.
With a per capita income of $2,900, Abuja is followed by Lagos with second wealthiest residents in the country, which puts it at par with Morocco and Sri Lanka.

The report showed that while much has been written in recent years about Nigeria’s rising economic significance, very little is known about the country’s 36 states.

It said Lagos State’s economy would be equivalent to the Ghanaian economy post-GDP rebasing, adding that the heart of Nigeria’s $284 billion GDP economy is clearly in Lagos.

Rencap said: “We base our analysis on states’ internally generated revenue, which make up 15 per cent of state government revenue, and consumption data, as proxies for state income.

“Lagos State produces about 12 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP, which is equivalent to $32 billion by 2013 ending. Post rebasing, which we now expect in early 2014, we estimate a 40 per cent upward revision in the country's national income.

“By our estimates, the Lagos State economy will become Africa's 13th biggest economy in 2014 at approximately $45 billion – equivalent to that of Ghana.”

According to the report, Nigeria’s second wealthiest state is in the north. “ Kano State is Nigeria’s second wealthiest economy, with an economy of $17 billion, by our estimates, which is equivalent in size to Botswana’s economy.

“Kano State is the anchor state of poorer northern Nigeria. Historically, Kano State has been a commercial and agricultural state. In pre-colonial times, Kano city, the state capital, served as the southernmost point of the famous trans-Sahara trade routes.

“Kano State has produced some of Nigeria’s most influential and wealthiest people, including Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote. Interestingly, Dangote’s great grandfather, Alhassan Dantata was the wealthiest man in West Africa during the colonial period.

“Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi’s grandfather held the influential position of Emir of Kano,” the report said.
The RenCap report further showed that Jigawa, which is bordered by the Republic of Niger to the north, is home to Nigeria’s poorest people, with average per capita income of $850, which puts it at par with that of Zimbabwe.

“We believe the state’s low per capita income partially reflects its very low rate of urbanisation. Nine out of 10 people in Jigawa State live in rural areas.”

In terms of demographics, the report stated that the populations of Kano and Lagos State – Nigeria’s most populous states – are equivalent to that of Portugal.

“Kano and Lagos are each home to 7 per cent of the country’s 170 million population, implying that each has a population of an estimated 10 million people,” the investment firm said in the report.

The report also delved into other areas of the north-south divide showing that there is a notable difference between both regions in terms of household sizes.

“Nigeria’s (richer) south-west states have smaller household sizes than its (poorer) northern counterparts. As is true globally, middle-class families tend to have fewer children, and invest more in each individual child.

“The states with the biggest household sizes are the two northern, neighbouring states of Bauchi and Gombi, where households are, on average, made up of over seven people.

“Lagos is among the states with the smallest household sizes – (4.9 people). Given that Lagos State is the most densely populated state in Nigeria, and its average household size is relatively small, the implication is that property prices (per square metre) must be expensive compared with those in other states,” the report stated.

The report also showed that Lagos has the highest net primary school completion ratio in Nigeria at 70.6 per cent, adding that the south-west population is more likely to have completed primary school than its counterparts in northern Nigeria.

“The most educated workforce in coming years will also be apparent in the south and south-west, where at least 60 per cent of the children complete secondary school.

“We think education levels in the south and south west are likely to spur even faster growth, as we have seen in emerging markets globally.”
Focusing on the middle class, the report said consumer companies are likely to find the greatest opportunities in states with the greatest purchasing power such as Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Osun, Kaduna and Nassarawa, as well as the Niger Delta states.

It also stated that there are opportunities for banks to expand services and employees into states with a combination of high income and high population density, adding that this would provide the footfall required for branch expansion.

According to the report, states with such opportunities include Anambra, Imo, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Osun.
Continuing, it said: “Consumers are more likely to buy branded goods in the FCT, Lagos, Delta and Rivers States. This, we infer from these states’ relatively low food spend/total consumption expenditure, which implies relatively high discretionary income.

“We think these states may also drive air travel, and may prove to be higher value-added customers for telecoms companies.
“We believe food retailers have expansion opportunities in states beyond the southern region that are characterised by relatively high food spend, such as Nassarawa, Niger and Kaduna.”